We guessed 5.
This turned out to be too many for a scarf, but just enough for a scarf and matching beanie.

The great thing about ribbing (yep, when i said matching i didn't just mean the colour) is that it stretches and contracts. As such, the first 18-19cm of the beanie is dead straight (102 stitches).
That's when it got nerdy! With a pen and paper i devised a system of repeating units and stitch combinations, such that in 8 rows i could get 102 stitches down under 10 - whilst maintaining a relatively linear rate of decrease, and also preserving the rib formation up to the tip of the beanie.

In the end i think it turned out ok. Hooray for Maths!
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